DJ 4K?

Derek Jeter has done just about everything there is to do in professional Baseball. Win the World Series (five times), win World Series MVP (2000), win Gold Gloves (five-time winner), make the all-star team (soon to be 13 times). He’s even collected 3,000 career hits, joining an elite club. When it is all said and done, Jeter will be a first ballot, no doubt hall-of-famer – he may even be the first unanimous vote getter in history. As the 3,000 hit milestone, a home run against the Rays’ David Price in 2011, becomes further away in the rearview mirror, the big question now remains: will Derek Jeter eclipse 4,000 hits, joining only Ty Cobb (4,189) and Pete Rose (4,256) as the only men to do so? A lot of factors depend on it.

Today is of course the Captain’s birthday. He turns the ripe old age of 38, the age in baseball that signals the end is near, although you wouldn’t believe so by looking at Jeter’s stats in 2012. He’s hitting .304 with seven homers (had six last year) and 25 RBIs, although he’s slumped of late. Through 37 years of age and right up to 38, Jeter has better overall stats than Rose. Jeter has amassed 3,181, 1,809 runs and a .313 batting average compared to Rose’s 3,170 hits, 1,658 runs and .310 BA. Actually, only two players have had more hits before turning age 38 than Jeter: the aforementioned Cobb and Hank Aaron (3,272).

With age comes a decline in production, as it is very hard to increase performance, let alone maintain it. If Jeter were to continue his 1.27 hits/game career average, he would reach Rose in 847 games, which is more than five full 162 game seasons. Jeter would reach Rose at age 43, just shy of his 44th birthday. Would Jeter want to hang around that long? Would he still be with the Yankees? He definitely won’t be playing shortstop at that age. Jeter has had seven seasons of 200 plus hits in his career, the last coming in 2009. Right now he is 1,075 away from Rose. It seems daunting, but Jeter is amazingly ahead of the pace. It all depends if he really wants to stick around for that long, and if he remains healthy. Remember, Rose is the only man in baseball history to have 1,000 hits (1,086) after age 38.

If Jeter has four more decent years left in him, and he stays healthy enough to play in over 130 games a year, there’s no reason to believe he won’t make it to the top three on the all-time hits list. Aaron is third, a mere 590 hits away. Jeter would have to average 147 hits per year in order to reach The Hammer. In my opinion, Jeter’s chances to reach Rose aren’t that great. If Jeter shows no signs of slowing down, he could definitely hang around for another five years. No matter where he finishes, Derek Jeter will be among the greatest to ever take the field. Do you think DJ will reach 4k?

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
About Rich Kaufman

Ever since my parents bought me a Paul O'Neill shirt at my first Yankees game back in 1994 I've been a diehard fan. Couple that with the fact I recently graduated from Springfield College with a degree in sports journalism, and writing about baseball especially the Yankees has become a passion of mine. Growing up and still living about 45 minutes north of the Stadium makes being a Yankee fan that much more special and exciting for me. For some Yankees talk follow me on Twitter @RAKcity27

  • Sam R Bang

    Rich, I am sorry to say, you just showed your age and yourself as a homer, you should have paid more attention in your Journalism classes.
    First things first; Jeter didn’t win 5 WS, the team won them, Gold gloves are more on hitting and personality than defense, the only MLB record he has is being one of 28 men to have hit 3,000 hits.
    I have no idea where you can think Jeter is a better player then guys like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra and these are just Yankees! One thing they all have in common with the rest of the players in the Hall of Fame is…none of them have ever gotten in with a unanimous vote.
    Jeter is the best SS the Yankees have ever had but, he has never been rated the best SS in the AL, let alone MLB. Jeter has been among the top three hitting SS for a long time but not in defense. A-Rod is considered one of the three best SS ever.
    Does Jeter deserve the HoF on his stats alone…Maybe to NO!
    Will Jeter get in the HoF….yes! But 1st ballot…not a chance!
    Every generation has a player they think is the greatest in MLB, because they have no other player to compare him too. Like compare Reggie(Big mouth) Jackson to A-Rod, well there really is no compareson at all…Reggie has nothing other than a srike out record and his WS records.

    • Rich k

      appreciate the comment. But I never said he was better than Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio etc etc. The numbers will tell you that. But as far as being a winner and overall importance to a team, he’s right up there with them. And yes, I know Arod was a better shortstop, and Jeter probably received those gold gloves by default. Roberto Alomar was oh so close to getting in on the first ballot, but didn’t because of his relationship with the media. Take Jeter’s behavior on and off the field, accountability and relationship with the media in NEW YORK no less, and I believe 100% with my heart he will make it on the first ballot he is on. Unanimous, thats a very very far stretch. 

  • Rich k

    Give this a read.

  • @GScott25

     Zero doubt at all that Derek Jeter makes it on his first ballot! The only thing that could possibly stop that is a Steroid indictment.  He is a sure fire first ballot hall of famer.